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Sure,” he says, adding that hard goods sales will migrate to ecommerce more quickly but “the more discretionary and the more perishable purchases” will move online at a much slower pace.

“I think innovation is not just an online phenomenon,” Nicholas says, citing as an example Kroger’s takeover of Roundy’s Supermarkets, primarily for its innovative Mariano’s division.

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What isn’t happening is the collapse of bricks-and-mortar retailing.

Online retail currently accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales, excluding automobiles and fuel; Kantar Retail sees that increasing to 18 percent by 2022. “In 30 or 40 years will it be closer to 50 percent?

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“There is no question that large, undifferentiated retail is in trouble and has been for some time,” says Leon Nicholas, chief insights officer for Kantar Retail, “but the headlines about the closing of American retailing is an overreaction.


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